Trump is losing ground in the 2024 primary. Here’s why.

Washington Post

Since leaving office, Trump has tried to replace these issues with the (false) claim that he was the rightful winner in 2020. This issue might seem helpful — 73 percent of Republicans say Biden did not legitimately win the election. But there are two key problems.

First, Trump angered a chunk of his party by pushing to overturn the 2020 election. According to the Times-Siena poll, nearly 1 in 5 Republican primary voters said Trump’s actions on Jan. 6 “went so far that he threatened American democracy” and a quarter of Trump voters maintain (correctly) that Biden legitimately won the 2020 election. By themselves, these voters aren’t numerous enough to stop Trump from getting the nomination — but they might be the base for an alternative GOP nominee.

Second, election fraud is not a priority for most Republicans.

In three consecutive FiveThirtyEight-Ipsos polls, “election fraud or security” emerges as, at best, a secondary issue, with about 1 in 5 Republicans listing it as a top concern. Moreover, Echelon Insights, a GOP polling and analytics firm, found that 4 in 10 Republicans believe Trump’s focus on 2020 is a good reason to oppose him in 2024.


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