The centuries-old process will continue until white smoke rises from the chapel’s chimney—signaling the successful election of a new pontiff.
VATICAN CITY — Cardinals are gathering at the Sistine Chapel as the papal conclave begins today, May 7, 2025, to elect the 267th pope.
The centuries-old process will continue until white smoke rises from the chapel’s chimney—signaling the successful election of a new pontiff.
Leading the odds is Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, with Kalshi placing his chances at 26%. A seasoned diplomat and current Vatican Secretary of State, Parolin is considered a moderate who could bridge divides within the Church. “He’s viewed as the safe choice,” one Vatican observer said, pointing to his ability to maintain continuity without controversy.
Close behind is Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle at 22%, a progressive figure dubbed the “Asian Francis.” Though some criticize his soft approach, his presence near the top suggests growing support for global representation. Matteo Zuppi, known for humanitarian work in Ukraine, follows at 10%.
The conclave includes 133 cardinals from 71 countries, making it the most geographically diverse in Church history. Voting will occur in up to four rounds daily until a two-thirds majority is achieved.
The new pope will inherit pressing challenges: internal divisions, global crises, and the future direction of Catholic leadership.
