ARISE NEWS
With the changing realities in next year’s electoral permutations, there is an increasing likelihood that the first ballot at the February 25 presidential election may not produce a clear winner.
By implication, there may be a run-off in the presidential bout before a clear winner is returned by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Although, with their current standing, the presidential candidate of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, can still boast 21 states, where he is certain to get 25 per cent, while his All Progressives Congress (APC) rival, Bola Tinubu, is confident of 20 states, where he can also pull his weight.
The candidates of Labour Party, Peter Obi, and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso, follow as third and fourth in that order with insignificant postings in many states to satisfy the constitutional requirement of 25 per cent of votes cast in 24 states.
This latest development follow a recent THISDAY poll – The Explainer – released by the THISDAY 2023 Election Centre, where a breakdown of the new realities is advanced, with implications for each candidate.
Some of the factors responsible for the new realities include the presence of the candidates in each of the states, their structures and support base, capacity to mobilise, the contents of their respective manifestos, ethnic sentiments, their popularity and name recognition, as well as financial war chest.
While the factors function differently from zone to zone, those responsible for the state-by-state analysis also differ in many respects, with the political parties playing defining roles as well.
NORTH-CENTRAL
In the North-central, there is a mixed bag of factors responsible for candidates’ stand, which is almost defying the previous extrapolation.
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