DAILY TRUST
Ahead of tomorrow’s presidential election, political analysts and development experts have predicted how the four frontline candidates will share 87.2 million votes.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) registered 93,469,008 persons for the election. But, yesterday, the electoral body said a total of 87,209,007 Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) were collected by eligible registrants for the elections.
The experts, however, said even though it is not clear who will emerge president at the end of tomorrow’s poll, each of the four frontline candidates represents an identity that will influence the outcome of the election.
Daily Trust reports that this is Nigeria’s seventh electoral cycle since 1999.
Of the 18 presidential candidates, the pendulum, according to the experts, is swinging towards; Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Sen. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
A panel of experts, who converged at the Media Trust Group headquarters in Abuja, argued that even though identity politics will play a role in determining Nigeria’s next president, the influence of money, institutions and information cannot be overruled.
“In the last three elections cycle, the role of money has grown considerably in influencing the polls,” said Prof Jibrin Ibrahim, a development and political analyst, who explained that President Muhammadu Buhari’s cash crunch policy will no doubt affect the polls.
“We now understand what Buhari meant by his insistence that he will leave a legacy of free and fair elections. So, he is not going to allow money to circulate,” Prof. Ibrahim said, adding that even though Tinubu has the edge due to the number of governors backing him, the new monetary policy will no doubt weaken his hands.
Idayat Hassan, a political analyst and the Director of the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), said that the role of institutions, information and identity are major factors in the upcoming election.
She said beyond the role of the election management body, the role of security agencies and that of the Central Bank of Nigeria as well as the judiciary will contribute to the outcome of the election.
“Security will also play a very important role. Most of the places are highly insecure. Southern Nigeria is much more impacted by insecurity, not just the South East,” she said.
How winner will emerge
To emerge as president, one of the four candidates must receive a plurality of the votes cast and at least 25 per cent of votes from 24 of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Therefore, in Nigeria’s 24 years since the return to democracy, one winner has always emerged with a wide margin of at least 2.5 million popular votes.
However, panelists at the Media Trust discussion said the dynamism of the 2023 election makes it difficult to predict who will emerge victorious.
“We agree that all our permutations from 1999 to 2019 are no longer looking useful for this particular election, as even the 14 states that have historically been the PDP strongholds are presently in contention,” said Idayat Hassan of the CDD.
“Things keep evolving, they are changing every day,” she said.
But as to who will be the first to cross the threshold and the regions to aid him, Hassan explained that in the North East, which is Atiku Abubakar’s turf, the ability of the PDP presidential candidate to own all the states in the region is in contention as Borno and Yobe states may pose a challenge.
However, she said even if the 23 APC governors engage in anti-party activities, they will most likely deliver 25 per cent of their states to Tinubu. “And that will be the same in all the G-5 states, which include Rivers, Abia, Enugu, Oyo and Benue states.”
READ THE FULL STORY IN DAILY TRUST
Connect with us on our socials: