Prepare for ‘deeply dangerous and unpredictable’ Russia if Vladimir Putin is replaced, says security expert who wonders whether the country will ‘go full on fascist’
- Yevgeny Prigozhin pulled his Wagner army out of a march to Moscow at 11th hour
- While Putin survived the revolt, questions are now being raised over his future
ARTHUR PARASHAR FROM DAILY MAIL
The UK must prepare for a ‘deeply dangerous and unpredictable’ post-Vladimir Putin Russia, a security expert has warned – as he questions whether the country will ‘go full on fascist’ in the wake of Wagner’s revolt.
Putin’s image as a tough leader had already been badly bruised by the Ukraine war, which has dragged on for 16 months and claimed huge numbers of Russian troops.
But when Yevgeny Prigozhin ordered his Wagner mercenaries to march towards Moscow in an attempted coup, it exposed further weaknesses in the president, analysts said.
As all eyes focus on Putin’s next move after Prigozhin was exiled to Belarus in a deal which saw him pull his private army away from Moscow at the 11th hour, security expert Edward Lucas pointed out the mounting problems the UK could face if there was to be a change of leadership.
Mr. Lucas, a senior adviser at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, told BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend: ‘We’ve made very little preparation in this country and done very little thinking about post-Putin Russia.
‘There will be all sorts of dilemmas and difficulties we face and we need to start thinking right now about how we deal with them.
‘And that’s everything from do we worry about Russia falling into the arms of China? Is there going to be disintegration? Will it go full on fascist? Will we have a long period of confusion and chaos? Will they use their nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip to try and get things?
‘And these are all the questions that we ought to be dealing with and I’m just not seeing it in most western capitals.
‘We face perhaps a decade or more of dealing with a deeply dangerous and unpredictable Russia without even the sort of superficial certainty we have of having Putin in power.’
It was back in May last year, just a few months into the war, that American historian Timothy Snyder discussed fascism in his New York Times op-ed ‘We Should Say It. Russia Is Fascist.’ Now, questions are being asked again.
It comes as Putin broke his silence in a ‘pre-recorded’ interview about ‘stepping up efforts’ in Ukraine after Prigozhin’s failed coup inflicted Russia’s worst daily air force losses of the war with 39 pilots and crew reportedly killed by Wagner.
Mr Lucas was just one of many, including US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, to question Putin’s future.
‘I think we’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian façade,’ Mr Blinken told NBC’s ‘Meet the Press.’ ‘We have all sorts of new questions that Putin is going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead.’
When asked if he thought Prigozhin’s army were being dismantled, he said: ‘We’ll see if this means that Wagner forces are coming out of Ukraine.
‘The very fact that over the weekend, Wagner forces were coming out of Ukraine and going into Russia and toward Moscow, in and of itself is, is extraordinary…. this is just the latest chapter in a book of failure that Putin has written for himself and for Russia.’
Prigozhin and his fighters had appeared to seize control of the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don that oversee fighting in Ukraine.
They then advanced towards Moscow largely unhindered. Russian media reported that they downed several helicopters and a military communications plane. The Defense Ministry has not commented.
They were halted only by a deal to send Prigozhin to neighbouring Belarus, which has supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Charges against him of mounting an armed rebellion will be dropped, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, and Prigozhin ordered his troops back to their field camps.
The government also said it would not prosecute Wagner fighters who took part, while those who did not join in would offered contracts by the Defence Ministry.
Though Putin had vowed earlier to punish those behind the armed uprising, Peskov defended the reversal, saying Putin’s ‘highest goal’ was ‘to avoid bloodshed and internal confrontation with unpredictable results.’
That amnesty stands in contrast to the fines and jail sentences Russian authorities have meted out to thousands of people who have criticized the war, even obliquely.
With questions being raised over Russia’s weaknesses, the Chinese foreign ministry expressed its support for Russia in the face of the mutiny.
