On Jan. 2, a surprise Israeli airstrike on the Lebanese capital of Beirut suggested 2024 could open with a terrifying spiral: An expansion of the Israel-Hamas war into Lebanon that could draw in the U.S., Iran and even nuclear weapons.
A few days later, that prospect seems slightly more remote, as the players involved have so far largely avoided ratcheting up tensions further. But it remains far more likely than many national security officials and experts would like ― and they say President Joe Biden is the only person who can truly prevent disaster.
At the heart of the simmering conflict is the animosity between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. Israeli leaders view Hezbollah as a threat that is arguably even greater than the Palestinian militant group Hamas ― which sparked the current Middle East crisis with a brutal Oct. 7 attack inside Israel ― because of the Lebanese group’s tens of thousands of fighters and sophisticated weaponry. Hezbollah is allied with…