Nate Silver’s forecast shows Trump with a 61.5% chance of winning, Harris at 38.3%

Statistician Nate Silver on Friday released his latest 2024 presidential election forecast, which shows former President Donald Trump at 61.5 percent and Vice President Kamala Harris at 38.3 percent.

The rise in Trump’s chances of 15.4 percent is a flip from Silver’s forecast on August 23, when Harris’s chances of winning were at 53.5 percent and Trump’s at 46.1 percent. Those numbers came right after the Democratic National Convention, when the vice president was still enjoying a mainstream media honeymoon.
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