Opta Analyst: Arsenal favorite to advance to semi final of the UCL

They arguably have the best front four in world football, but Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo created next to nothing, unable to break down Atlético’s low block.

Rodrygo was the only one who managed a shot on target, and he did so with a hopeful effort worth just 0.03 xG. Mbappé made a crucial contribution by winning the penalty that Vinícius missed, brought down by a desperate Clément Lenglet, but he also didn’t manage a single shot. It was only the second game for either Real Madrid or PSG since September 2021 in which the Frenchman has failed to have even one shot when playing the full 90 minutes. And this time he played 120 minutes. Atlético did a remarkable job of containing Madrid’s fearsome front line.

They blocked the centre of the pitch exceptionally, with one of their wide midfielders joining the back four to make a five depending on which side of the pitch Madrid had the ball. The wide midfielder on the side where the ball was moved out to press, meanwhile, and as Madrid moved the ball from side to side, the Atlético defence moved back and forth like a pendulum.

They worked relentlessly and (almost) faultlessly and kept Madrid (almost) completely silent. The visitors managed just 22.3% of their attacking touches through the middle third of the pitch as they played across the pitch with little threat on the Atlético goal.

The only occasion when Atlético slipped up was when they allowed Madrid out of defence too quickly and Mbappé ran through to win the penalty. Vinícius’ miss was the only bit of luck Atlético relied on all night.

When they did attack, they focused on transitions down their right, possibly with the defensive flaws of Ferland Mendy, who was shaky all game, in mind. They had 54.1% of their attacking touches down that flank, and the only goal of the game came from a cross from that side.

Mikel Arteta isn’t afraid of taking a defence-first approach, and his Arsenal side have an exceptional defensive record. They have conceded the lowest xG both in the Premier League (24.6 xG) and in the Champions League (8.8 xG) this season, while they have conceded fewer goals than any other team in the English top flight (24) and rank second to Inter (2) in Europe’s main competition (6).

They also have a rather good right-sided attacker who they already rely on and will be hoping to have back from a serious hamstring injury in time for the first leg against Madrid in early April. Bukayo Saka’s “progress [in his recovery] is really good,” Arteta said at the weekend. “We are positive that in a few weeks hopefully he will be back.”

Arsenal have been lacking in firepower in the weeks without Saka or Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus, who are both out for the season, so it would probably suit them to focus on blocking up the middle of the pitch and keeping their opponents out.

Centre-backs Gabriel Magalhães and William Saliba are both brilliant footballers, but they are also happy to do the dirty work. Jurriën Timber, Riccardo Calafiori and Myles Lewis-Skelly are all physical beasts who are ready to work hard and fight for a clean sheet, while also being very, very good on the ball.

As a result, any Arsenal fans with their glass half full might well be able to see the positives in Madrid being their quarter-final opponent. It might actually be the case that Arsenal are more suited to facing Madrid than they would have been a defensively resolute Atlético. The Opta supercomputer even makes them slight favourites to win the tie, given a 52.8% chance.