VANGUARD
•Scarcity to bite harder as failures hit us more
•Reasons the budget may not be implemented
SPECIAL REPORT BY DR DELE SOBOWALE
“Once to every man and nation comes the moment to decide, in the strife of truth and falsehood, for the good or evil side.” James Russell Lowell, 1819-1891.
INTRODUCTION
No two years are ever alike in the history of any country. But, 2024 in Nigeria, will be characterised by three words: SCARCITY, FAILURE AND CHAOS.
Scarcity will be the most pervasive. The year is already going to start with cash scarcity – which is a hangover from the disastrous currency change programme early in the year. Others to expect include the following: foreign exchange, food, manufactured goods, drugs, jobs, university lecturers, doctors, nurses, and accommodation.
Scarcity, meanwhile, induces recurrent inflation – which means that, contrary to the assumptions in the budget, inflation in 2024 might top 30 per cent. Furthermore, a look at the list above should reveal to the reader that the situations in Nigeria make the shortages of supply inevitable.
For too long, Nigerians have been led by one political falsehood after another. As we start 2024, we are once more confronted with the government’s increasing credibility gap. Trust in governments, which binds the people of the great nations together, has been missing in Nigeria since 1960.
Governments, at Federal, State and Local Government levels now deceive the people so shamelessly and without remorse. Except for those in government, the beneficiaries of their activities (whatever those might be) and their party members few people believe the leaders anymore. Yet, rapid social, economic and political development will continue to elude us until faith in governments is restored.
Two quick questions will illustrate the point and lead us to the forecasts for 2024 – which unbelievably promises to be worse than any year before it. Hope delayed.
FUEL SUBSIDY REMOVED; TRUE OR FALSE?
“Subsidy is gone.” President Bola Tinubu, May 29, 2023.
On vital national issues, a President should not speak flippantly and without meaning it; because lives of millions of stakeholders depend on his utterances. Thus, when Tinubu announced that “Subsidy is gone” in his inaugural address, and was roundly applauded for his “courage” and for “hitting the ground running”, my first comment on June 4, 2023, was “Talk is cheap”. Something told me that Tinubu had not fully considered all the implications of the policy decision. In less than 72 hours after, some of the repercussions came tumbling in.
Rattled, Tinubu was forced to call an Emergency Meeting of the National Economic Council, NEC. The NEC, which should have been consulted before making the announcement, joined the President in promising a lot of palliatives; most of which have not been delivered till today.
Right now a question which should have only one answer – Yes or No – has two answers; depending on who is talking. FG’s credibility and the fate of Nigerians in 2024 hang on the truth. Below are the answers given to the most important question for 2024.
Federal Government
“Subsidy is gone , and the President told Nigerians from his first day in office that there won’t be subsidy…..There are instances where the government needs to come in to see that things don’t go bad…Every rule will also have its self-adjusting mechanism…” Mohammed Idris, Minister of Information and National Orientation on Channels TV.
World Bank
“It does seem like petrol prices are not fully adjusting to market conditions. So, that hints at the partial return of the subsidy….We think the price of petrol should be around N750 litre – more than the N650/litre currently paid by Nigerians.” Alex Sienaert, Economist, World Bank.
Marketers
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