Edo poll: How new voters may affect political calculations

PUNCH

The figures released by the Independent National Electoral Commission for new registrants in the Edo State governorship election, predominantly composed of youths, indicate where the political parties contesting the election should channel their efforts to secure votes, writes ADEYINKA ADEDIPE

With the Edo State governorship election fast approaching, the electorate came out in large numbers to participate in the Continuous Voters Registration that took place from May 27 to June 9. The exercise was slated to end on June 5, but the massive turnout of would-be voters encouraged the Independent National Electoral Commission to extend the registration period and, in the end, the exercise was declared a success by the electoral umpire.

The exercise also afforded those who had registered before now to collect their PVCs from the unclaimed 373,030 in possession of the INEC, while those hoping to change their polling units had the chance to do so.

The CVR exercise was akin to killing two beds with a stone, despite misgivings by some political parties who were not sure that the arrangement put in place by the electoral commission for the CVR exercise would produce the best results.

Despite the apprehension and attacks in some centres over claims that a particular party was trying to hijack the exercise, the CVR ended peacefully and INEC released 119,206 as the number of new registrants. The figure shows a larger percentage of youths would participate in the governorship election.

The breakdown of registration in each Local Government Area as indicated in the INEC data are Akoko Edo: 5,807 (4.87 per cent), Etsako East: 6,383 (5.35 per cent), Etsako West: 8,245 (6.92 per cent), Etsako Central: 5,020 (4.21 per cent), Owan East: 5,980 (5.02 per cent), Owan West: 5,072 (4.25 per cent), Esan West: 5,168 (4.34 per cent), Esan Central: 4,659 (3.91 per cent), Esan North-East: 6,216 (5.21 per cent), Esan South-East: 6,105 (5.12 per cent), Igueben: 3,774 (3.17 per cent), Uhunmwonde: 4,133 (3.47 per cent), Egor: 8,732 (7.33 per cent), Oredo: 10,028 (8.41 per cent), Ikpoba/Okha: 10,685 (8.96 per cent),  Orhionmwon: 8,561 (7.18 per cent), Ovia South-West: 5,662 (4.75 per cent) and Ovia North-East: 8,978 (7.53 per cent).

INEC went further to give a breakdown of the demography of the new registrants with youths (18-35 years) having newly registered voters 97,723 (81.98 per cent), middle-aged (36-49), 15,409 (12.93 per cent), the elderly (50-69) has 5,505 registrants (4.62 per cent), while the old (70+) had only 569 new registered voters (0.48 per cent).

With only 600,395 voters taking part in last year’s presidential election, out of the 2,128,051 electorate with PVCs, from the 2,501,081 that registered, the 17 political parties know the enormity of the task ahead of them and have started canvassing for votes. However, if the figures from last year’s election are anything to go by, then the parties and their agents need to redouble their efforts towards meeting the new registrants to ensure the apathy witnessed in the 2023 election does not recur this time around.

The youth form the bulk of the new registrants and they have been clamouring for inclusion as well as a chance to participate in the country’s electoral system. They have the opportunity to do so in this election and they must ensure they make a statement by casting their ballot in the election.

Though some are already seeking elective positions, others should equally come out to vote for candidates of their choice, as failing to do so means that they have to put up with whoever is elected and not blame anyone or group for any woe that befalls them later.

The atmosphere has been charged with the ongoing campaign, though a social commentator, Igbinobaro Odia, said the election would be won by the party that reaches out to the masses. He noted that the electorate, especially the new registrants in the state, were now more aware of the need to take part in the election and would be ready to cast their vote on September 21.

He said, “From the INEC statistics, it is clear that many people, especially the youth, took part in the CVR, which shows their willingness to be part of an election that will usher in a new government in the state.

“I am sure that they wouldn’t just leave their houses to register without ensuring that they come out to vote on Election Day. Why go for the CVR without the intention of voting? I am sure the political parties and their agents will be targeting these new registrants who may also be undecided on who to vote for. The participation of this group of persons may be key to where the pendulum of victory swings.

“The Peoples Democratic Party, the All Progressives Congress and the Labour Party seem to be in the forefront out of the 17 parties that will participate in the election, but the parties must also work on existing voters to be sure of victory.

“There are party die-hard supporters who will vote for their candidates any day but the undecided voters are fertile ground for party agents to canvass for votes,” Odia added.

While agreeing that the new voters will play a crucial role in the election, the Executive Director, Justice Research Centre, Benin City, Donald Inwalomhe, said the outcome of the governorship election would largely be determined by youths and women across the 18 Local Government Areas in the state.

He also said the economic policies of the Federal Government led by President Bola Tinubu and the removal of fuel subsidies would determine the outcome of the September 21 election.

“Well, it is right to say that new voters will have a major say in this election, but there are others who have always played a major role. The women and the youth who have always trooped out to vote for the candidates of their choices, these set of people, to me, are the movers of our democracy.

“In Edo North, the people are aggrieved because for more than nine years, the Federal Government failed to fulfil its promises to rehabilitate and dualise the Benin-Auchi road but it took President Tinubu to start the construction of the Lagos-Calabar coastal road without budgetary provisions.

“I also have it on good authority that party chieftains, including a former Deputy Governor of the state, have been forced to relocate from one polling unit to another for fear of defeat in the election. That is the power the voters have and they are willing to use it to their advantage on Election Day,” he added.

A major canvasser for one of the major political parties, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak on the matter, however, said his work on the field had shown that youths were ready to vote massively during the election as they seek a new government that would connect with the grassroots.

He noted that the awareness among rural dwellers was also high while the women had vowed to come out en masse to vote for the candidates of their choices, despite persuasion from his group for some of them to vote for their candidates.

“It is obvious that the youths are willing to take part in this election. I have been on the field for months, canvassing for votes with my team. While some are buying into our candidate’s manifesto, others are ready to stick to their candidates. No matter what you tell them, they are not moved, but we will continue to work.

“Again, the women seem to be ready as usual. Most of them told me they were ready for the election, while they also noted that a candidate who cared about their welfare would get their votes. I was able to convince some to vote for my candidate and I also met some fresh voters who are ready to use their PVCs to great effect.

“Most of these new registrants were willing to listen to my team sell our candidate. Most of them are still not sure of who to vote for and targeting them will be very productive,” our source said.

INEC, in its various stakeholders’ meetings, had urged parties, their agents, the electorate, and others to conduct themselves peacefully to ensure a hitch-free exercise. The electoral umpire proved its readiness for the election by announcing that the official publication of the voter register would be done on August 20, with copies presented to the different political parties.