The forecast for the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, used by the Federal Reserve as a major inflation metric, has been raised for each quarter of the upcoming year, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
According to the figures based on the median forecast of 65 economists in a Bloomberg survey carried out during the week through November 11, sluggish economic activity and hiked interest rates will send the PCE price index averaging at 2.8% by the final three months of 2023.
Forecasters also upgraded quarterly expectations for the core PCE price measure that exclude food and energy costs, and the consumer price index.
They still expect price pressures to cool sharply over the course of the year. Meanwhile, the chances of a recession during 2023 continued to increase, rising to 65% from 60% last month.
The analysts now expect the Fed to begin…
