Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election: Inside the opinion polls that got it wrong

In the weeks leading up to the 25 February presidential election, most polls predicted that Labour Party candidate Peter Obi would win the election and become Nigeria’s next president.

But as votes were sorted and collated by INEC after the elections, nervous supporters and pollsters began to experience a sense of déjà vu. More ballots were ticking toward Bola Tinubu, now president-elect, than the polls had projected.

No fewer than nine polls projected Mr Obi to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in May. Only three of the public opinion surveys indicated the ruling party candidate Mr Tinubu would win the election.

However, Mr Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, was declared the winner of the election after he scored 8,794,726 votes. Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) trailed with 6,984,520 votes while LP’s Mr Obi came third with 6,101,533 votes.

Messrs Atiku and Obi, however, dispute the outcome of the election and have commenced a legal…