How Russia-Ukraine war ends, and implications for Africa

The war in Ukraine and the related intensified competition between the United States (US) and China loom over every international relations discussion. How might the war end, and how will these scenarios affect Africa?

Projections for the next 20 years by African Futures and Innovation at the Institute for Security Studies show that Africa’s economic growth is unlikely to deliver commensurate standard-of-living improvements. The prospects become even worse when the impact of the Ukraine conflict is considered.

Although Africa represents only 3 per cent of the global economy, its large and poor population (17 per cent of the world’s total) means the continent is deeply affected by the war that has already impacted food and fertiliser supplies and prices.

As fighting continues, resources will be diverted from Africa, including aid, investment and humanitarian relief. Already the International Monetary Fund and World Bank regularly revise their growth and poverty…