Russia has deployed the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles for combat duty. (Russian Defence Ministry/Handout via Reuters/File)
She added that Putin “placed Russia’s nuclear forces on a special combat regime shortly after he invaded Ukraine out of the fear that the US and NATO may intervene on behalf of Ukraine. So the fallback option is the so-called escalate to de-escalate strategy, which envisions a detonation of a tactical (small yield) nuclear warhead on the battlefield, to deter US/NATO intervention.”
Sarmat is a “strategic weapon, reserved for strategic targets, like the United States,” Koffler, who wrote the book “Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America” and has briefed the Pentagon, the White House, National Security Council and NATO on Russia’s nuclear doctrine, explained.
“But Putin would never attack the US homeland kinetically, especially with nuclear weapons, unless of course, Russia detects signs that we attack them first. So this Sarmat move is for deterrence purposes,” she added.
After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Putin claimed Sarmat would “reliably ensure the security of Russia from external threats and make those who, in the heat of aggressive rhetoric, try to threaten our country, think twice,” she said.
Koffler said that much of Russia’s media, including RIA Novosti, Gazeta and Young Moscow Communist, has published an English article translated into Russian claiming that Sarmat could wipe out London in six minutes.
“So the deterrence message appears to be directed at the UK in this case, which is of course a committed supporter of Ukraine,”Koffler noted. “Again, Putin will not attack London or any NATO country, unless Russian intelligence concludes that Russia is about to be attacked by NATO.”
She said the fear of “unintended escalation” is what keeps her and other national security professionals “up at night.”