https://www.npr.org/2023/06/24/1184161169/russia-wagner-putin-analysis-prigozhin
NPR
A mutiny by Russia’s Wagner Group of mercenaries appears to have ended with the leader recalling his troops, but the uprising may have done irreparable damage to the image of President Vladimir Putin at home and abroad, analysts say.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the shadowy private army that has played an outsized role in the fighting in Ukraine, claimed on Saturday to be in control of Russia’s military headquarters in the city of Rostov-on-Don, a key installation the Kremlin has used as a base for its offensive operations in Ukraine. Wagner forces then began making their way toward Moscow in what looked to the outside world like an attempted coup d’etat.
Within hours, however, Prigozhin — a former close confidant of Putin who had accused Russia’s military leadership of attacking and killing his soldiers — said he had commanded his forces to return to their bases.
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, says despite the apparent end of the mutiny, the Russian leader will undoubtedly be weakened by the strong challenge to his authority.
“He will try to compensate by making the regime even more hands-on,” Gabuev told NPR. “The regime will become increasingly more repressive at home.”
Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul says there’s “no doubt” that Prigozhin’s mutiny weakens Putin and “raises doubts about his ability to continue to govern Russia in an effective way.”
For months, Prigozhin has been an unusually vocal critic of the Russian military, and in particular of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom he has accused of incompetence and whose resignation Prigozhin demanded.
Late Saturday, Prigozhin announced on social media that his forces were ending their “march for justice” to Moscow that saw the mercenaries make their way from the southern city of Rostov-on-Don to the outskirts of the Russian capital. He ordered the forces to “turn our columns around and go in the opposite direction back to a field camp as planned.”
In what appeared to be part of a deal, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the criminal case against Prigozhin and his fellow mutineers would be dropped and that the Wagner boss himself will “go to Belarus.” Wagner troops who did not participate in the uprising will sign contracts with Russia’s Ministry of Defense.
Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corp, cautions that at the moment, little is known, but “one thing we know for certain is that Putin’s authority is irreparably damaged.”
“It’s sort of like a Wizard of Oz moment, where it turns out that the people who have the guns are not willing to use them to prop up your authority,” he says…
