VANGUARD
“History does not repeat itself; man does” – Harvard Prof. Barbara Tuchman
My heart sank after reading the summary of the 2024 Budget and the promise by the Tinubu government to create a $1 trillion economy in ten years. Now, I am inclined to believe that Nigeria will never become the global economic power we yearn for as long as we continue to elect men seventy years and above as Presidents.
They all belong to the same generation making empty promises; thinking that they were inspiring their listeners.
All our Presidents, since 1999, including Jonathan, are far less informed about economics and social trends than many of their own citizens with good Master’s Degrees from reputable universities.
The $1 trillion economy promise is a product of the same mindset as Buhari’s vow to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty, in ten years, in 2015.
These are laughable utterances because they defy easily demonstrable analysis.
Buhari stubbornly clung to his ridiculous promise even during his second term; when Nigeria was already firmly established as the poverty capital of the world.
Tinubu will most probably do the same with his VISION $1TN ECONOMY.
To help promote this pipe-dream, Tinubu has re-cycled Dr Shamsudeen Usman, a former Minister of Finance, and an avid canvasser for VISION 2020 – which was a colossal failure.
It gave me immense pleasure to repeatedly expose Usman and all the other apostles of VISION 2020 – which was based on witch doctor economics. Don’t be surprised if Tinubu inaugurates a committee, headed by Usman, to drive the illusion of $1 trillion economy in six years.
Like VISION 2020, this one also promises to be a waste of time and resources.
None of those selected to work on this project will have the honour and guts to tell Tinubu to forget it.
Very soon, “financial experts”, engineers, surveyors, bankers, “youth groups”, accountants, lawyers, pastors and imams, cooks and bus drivers etc, will flood newspapers with suggestions about how Nigeria can perform the miracle.
That was what happened with VISION 2020 – until the year started and ended. Nobody was decent enough to apologise to Nigerians for building false hopes from 1992 to 2020.
We are getting ready for another scam.
WHY TINUBU SHOULD FORGET IT
“Behind the facts of economics are the facts of psychology…the emotions of fear and confidence; the judgments of doubt and certainty, constitute a very important medium through which we see economic values” – Arthur Stone Dewing, Harvard Business Review, October 1923.
Nigeria, under Tinubu, will not re-invent economic principles, re-write the metrics governing economic development, or draw up a new table for compound interest.
All these have been done before; they serve as caution to governments embarking on ambitious or unrealistic growth of the Gross Domestic Product, GDP, of their economies.
For me, all the noise about $1 trillion economy merely reminds me of the promises to deliver housing, education, employment for all by 2000 in the early 1990s.
Then, as now, everybody in government echoed the announcement by the President.
Only “prophets of doom”, like me, drew attention to the limiting factors – which would make the targets impossible to achieve – published our dissenting views.
We were dutifully ignored by the leaders and praise-singers.
Again, in 2000, I drew the attention of the promoters to the fact that none of the promised welfare packages had been delivered.
There was silence all around.
