Nate Silver: Don’t buy the hype. Trump is still winning

JAZZ SHAW FROM HOTAIR

Nearly everywhere you look across the legacy media landscape this week, you will see the same message being repeated. Replacing Joe Biden at the top of the ticket with Kamala Harris wasn’t a disaster for the Democrats. It was brilliant! And Harris is “surging” already. I saw one headline at Bloomberg this morning declaring that Harris has “wiped out” Donald Trump’s lead. But how much of that is real and how much is simply the fantasies of the Trump-hating press? Just yesterday, Ed covered the latest Harvard poll showing Trump with a still substantial, if slightly decreased lead. Shortly thereafter, perennial election prognosticator Nate Silver released his own latest assessment. It’s true that Harris is doing better than Joe Biden had been performing. (It’s difficult to imagine anyone doing much worse.) But only very slightly. In fact, in Silver’s model, Trump remains in the low 60s while Kamala Harris is stuck in the upper 30s. (NY Post)

Even after Democrats dramatically moved to re-top their presidential ticket and got an apparent jolt of momentum, famed election analyst and statistical guru Nate Silver still deems former President Donald Trump the favorite.

His election forecast model gives Trump a 61.3% chance of prevailing in the Electoral College, while Vice President Kamala Harris is at 38.1%.

Silver previously pegged Trump with a 65.7% chance of victory over President Biden during his model rollout last month.

In his most recent assessment, Silver included a slew of polling averages that gave Trump slight advantages nationally and in most of the battleground states, albeit not in Wisconsin, where Harris was ahead.

So Nate Silver sees Donald Trump’s chance of victory having dropped from 65.7% to 61.3%. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has crept up from the mid-30s to 38.1%. That’s still a fairly healthy margin. It’s not that it’s impossible for this analysis to be wrong, but you have to dig quite a way back into history to find an example of Nate missing a call by anywhere near that much. I see him being cited on CNN nearly as much as he is on Fox News. In that sense, Silver has become the gold standard of election analysis, if you’ll pardon the precious metals pun. He doesn’t base his forecasts on his own political preferences (whatever those may be), but on the hit-and-miss rates of the other pollsters that he tracks. 

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Nate Silver: Don't buy the hype. Trump is still winning

 

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