Vice President Harris still has the edge in this week’s forecast. It predicts that Harris will take home at least 241 electoral college votes to Trump’s 219.
Her advantage is no larger than it was in September, and as this column has mentioned, battleground states are usually – and mostly – won and lost together. The six toss-up states in this forecast are worth 78 votes, enough to give either candidate a victory on election night.
National polls show a tight race: a Quinnipiac survey has Harris and former President Trump tied at 48%-48% with likely voters, while Marist has the candidates at 50%-48%, well within the polls’ margins of sampling error.
