TORONTO STAR
An Olympic-pool-sized asteroid discovered less than two weeks ago has one of the greatest chances of crashing into Earth than any we’re currently monitoring.
Named 2023DW, the asteroid was first discovered Feb. 26 by a Chilean observatory and is anticipated to make impact two decades from now on Valentine’s Day 2046, according to the European Space Agency (ESA).
That said, experts believe the discovery is no major cause for concern.
Hanno Rein, an associate professor of astronomy and astrophysics at the University of Toronto, said current best estimates put 2023DW as having a one in 600 chance of impact with Earth.
Although scientists are still studying the object and predictions may change with time, Rein said, “Given its size, and given its relatively low probability, there’s really no cause for concern at the moment.”
“If the probability increases, going up to one in 100 or one in 10, then it becomes more of an immediate concern,” he told the Star.
According to NASA, 2023DW has a diameter of just under 50 metres. Rein estimates there are “around 100,000 or a million” near-Earth asteroids in that size category.
In the days since its discovery, 2023DW has topped the ESA’s Risk List — a catalogue of all near-Earth objects with a nonzero chance of impacting the planet. Of the roughly 1,450 objects on the list, 2023DW placed first in terms of impact likelihood. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s dangerous, however.
According to Rein, the hazard of near-Earth objects are ranked according to the Torino scale, with zero being harmless and 10 being the worst possible impact. 2023DW clocks in at a one, while every other current object on the Risk List is a zero.
NASA Asteroid Watch on X (formerly Twitter): “We’ve been tracking a new asteroid named 2023 DW that has a very small chance of impacting Earth in 2046. Often when new objects are first discovered, it takes several weeks of data to reduce the uncertainties and adequately predict their orbits years into the future. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/SaLC0AUSdP / X”
We’ve been tracking a new asteroid named 2023 DW that has a very small chance of impacting Earth in 2046. Often when new objects are first discovered, it takes several weeks of data to reduce the uncertainties and adequately predict their orbits years into the future. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/SaLC0AUSdP
NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office announced Tuesday it also had been monitoring 2023DW, adding that it has a “very small chance” of hitting Earth. As they continue observing the asteroid, the agency’s orbit analysts will be updating predictions with time.
The last time a similarly sized object crashed to Earth was about a century ago in Serbia, Rein said. It caused “relatively widespread devastation,” flattening trees in 50 square kilometres of uninhabited forest. While 2023DW can be expected to cause a similar impact, Rein said it’s far more likely to strike uninhabited areas or the ocean than a major city.
