🇪🇺✔️ Here’s how the Champions League table looks after today’s matches… pic.twitter.com/uPyfzaxeqg
— CentreGoals. (@centregoals) November 27, 2024
Liverpool are the only side with a 100% record in this season's Champions League, are eight points clear at the top of the Premier League table and have won 17 of their 19 matches so far in 2024/25.
— Squawka (@Squawka) November 27, 2024
Slot ball is in full flow. 😍 pic.twitter.com/hpFN4OhqfD
BBC SPORT
Could Manchester City miss out on a Champions League top-eight spot? And what do Celtic, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Liverpool need to reach the knockout stages?
Three games remain in the revamped Champions League’s new 36-team league phase.
The top eight automatically progress to the last 16 and, crucially, skip the two-legged knockout play-off round.
But, not everyone is enjoying the new format. English champions Manchester City find themselves in 17th after five matches.
And, looking further down the table, defending champions Real Madrid and Paris St-Germain could miss out on the knockouts entirely.
Who qualifies for the knockout phase?
First, here’s a gentle reminder of what the 36 League Phase teams are aiming for.
Those finishing in the top eight automatically progress to the last 16, where they will be seeded.
They will await the winners of eight two-legged knockout play-off ties featuring the clubs ranked from ninth to 24th.
Those finishing between ninth and 16th will be seeded and face a team placed 17th to 24th, with the advantage of playing the second leg at home.
The clubs 25th or lower are eliminated and do not gain entry in to the Europa League.
How many points are needed to qualify?
Given this is the first edition of the new format, it remains to be seen exactly how many points will be required to achieve a top-eight finish, or avoid elimination from the competition.
Before this season’s competition, Opta calculated each teams’ projected points tallies and likelihood of progressing based on 50,000 simulations of the league phase.
They found that 16 points – potentially five wins and one draw from eight matches – would give a 98% chance of finishing in the top eight.
Meanwhile, achieving 10 points – three wins and one draw, for example – would give a 99% chance of securing a place in the top 24.
However, any team collecting fewer than nine points can expect their involvement in European competition this season to come to an end.
Which clubs are on track and who has work to do?
Leaders Liverpool are the only team to boast a perfect record after five games and, with 15 points, are currently assured of at least a play-off spot.
They probably already have enough to reach the last 16, too. According to Opta’s pre-tournament simulations, 15 points is good enough for a top-eight place 73 percent of the time.
Two points behind the Reds are Inter Milan, one of the two other unbeaten sides alongside Atalanta. Italian champions Inter are in great shape for the knockouts, as are Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta, who are all in the top eight.
Arsenal are seventh after a fine 5-1 win away to Sporting. With 10 points, the Gunners most likely already have enough for at least a play-off place.
Mikel Arteta’s side are sandwiched between Bayer Leverkusen and Monaco, who complete the top eight.
Aston Villa are ninth on 10 points, only behind Arsenal, Leverkusen and Monaco on goal difference.
Unai Emery’s team started their campaign with three wins but have since lost to Club Brugge and drawn to Juventus.
There are plenty of European heavyweights outside the top eight, with Bayern Munich in 13th, Atletico Madrid in 15th, AC Milan in 16th and Juventus in 19th.
Perhaps the most surprising club to be off the pace is 2022-23 winners Manchester City.
Opta gave Pep Guardiola’s side a 24.9 percent chance of lifting this season’s Champions League in September, but City currently find themselves in 17th with only eight points from their five games.
According to Opta’s pre-tournament simulations teams with eight points at this stage avoided elimination 16% of the time.
With nine points they reached the next round 69% of the time and with 10 points they advanced in 99% of run throughs.
Also on eight points are Scottish champions Celtic, who are hoping to reach the knockout stages of the Champions League for the first time since the 2012-13 season.
Fifteen-time winners Real Madrid currently occupy the final qualification spot in 24th. Los Blancos have just six points, having lost three of their five matches.
Paris St-Germain are the biggest name in the elimination zone, two points off Madrid, having only won one of their Champions League matches so far this season.
THIS ARTICLE ORIGINALLY APPEARED IN BBC SPORT
