DEUTSCHE WELLE
military has undergone its biggest leadership shake-up in a decade as two top generals overseeing the country’s nuclear arsenal vanished from public view and, with little explanation, were subsequently removed from their posts.
Cercius, a Canada-based consultancy that monitors elite Chinese politics, reported last month the status of around 10 current and retired officials from the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) — including the former commander Li Yuchao and his deputy Liu Guangbin — remained unclear.
The change came as the South China Morning Post reported that Li and his current and former deputies were being investigated by the the anti-corruption unit of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the country’s top defense body chaired by Chinese President .
In late July, ahead of the Chinese army’s founding anniversary on August 1, Xi spoke at different high-level military meetings stressing “strict discipline” and the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) “absolute leadership” over the army, according to Beijing’s mouthpiece China Daily.
What does it mean for Xi’s power?
The CMC also presented slogans in a guideline, urging the army to “deter, eliminate, and prevent corruption” for greater combat readiness.
The moves, along with the uncommon leadership overhaul, sparked widespread speculation over the implications and prospects of China’s military.
According to China’s official Xinhua news agency, Wang Houbin, the navy’s former deputy commander, will become the new head of the PLARF, while Xu Xisheng will move from the Southern Theater Command to become its new political commissar.
Lyle Morris, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, told DW that it is “pretty rare” for Beijing to replace both top positions at once and appoint officials who “have very little experience in the rocket force itself.”
“It’s more of a political move than an operational move, a stopgap measure to fill the ranks of people that Xi trusts,” he added.
The removal of PLARF’s top leaders shares similarities with that of the former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who for almost a month before being replaced by his predecessor, Wang Yi.
Taylor Fravel, an expert on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told DW that both incidents highlight “leadership positions in the party remain precarious, even after more than 10 years of Xi’s rule and consolidation of power.”
“It suggests that events such as these are a feature of Xi’s rule and not a bug,” he added.
Has China’s military strategy on Taiwan changed?
The Rocket Force, responsible for China’s fast-growing land-based , played a key role in live-fire drills that China has carried out around Taiwan.
Besides, the selection of a new commander with strategic planning experience from his previous role as deputy chief of staff in China’s navy is regarded by some military experts as evidence of Xi’s heightened readiness for a .
But Lin Ying-Yu, an assistant professor researching the PLA’s development at Tamkang University in Taipei, told DW that “China’s policy towards Taiwan is unlikely to have a significant change.”
While Xi appears to “prioritize loyalty over expertise”, the force’s capabilities are unlikely to diminish solely due to leadership changes, Lin added, as the plans for the force development were mostly pre-established 5 to 15 years in advance and are likely to continue.
Instead, Lin believes, what deserves more attention is whether Beijing has been dealing with significant corruption in equipment procurement — a situation that affected the Russian army’s advances.
Speculation surges over the reshuffle
Last month, the CMC issued opinions on establishing an “early warning mechanism for integrity risks in the military” to investigate cases of corruption linked to equipment procurement dating back nearly six years.
However, as the Chinese government did not officially clarify the causes of PLARF’s leadership reshuffle, further speculation pointed to the divulgement of military secrets.
In October, a comprehensive report on the organization of PLARF was released by the US Air Force’s research institute, raising suspicions of a potential leak within China’s rocket forces.
But critics argue that Xi could use any reason to remove political dissidents and consolidate power.
Gao Yu, a senior Chinese journalist and dissident, told DW that the upheaval in PLARF “can include issues of power struggles.” She mentioned the death of Wu Guohua, a retired deputy commander of PLARF, is considered to be related to the latest purge.
In early July, Chinese media belatedly reported Wu’s passing as a result of “medical issues” while his former boss Zhang Xiaoyang revealed that Wu had committed suicide at home, as Gau posted on Twitter.
Additionally, a user claiming to be Wu’s daughter posted on Weibo, China’s equivalent of the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), to defend her father’s reputation by praising Wu for “punishing the traitors” during his tenure.
Much like Wu’s case, the secretive nature of personnel changes within China’s rocket forces raises questions. “The standing among the services in the PLA might take a reputational hit,” Lyle said.
Edited by: Keith Walker
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