NEW YORK TIMES
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald J. Trump in three crucial battleground states, according to new surveys by The New York Times and Siena College, the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for Democrats after President Biden’s departure from the presidential race remade it.
Ms. Harris is ahead of Mr. Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in each state. The surveys were conducted from Aug. 5 to 9.
The polls, some of the first high-quality surveys in those states since Mr. Biden announced he would no longer run for re-election, come after nearly a year of surveys that showed either a tied contest or a slight lead for Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden.
[On question after question, the poll finds that voters don’t seem to have major reservations about Kamala Harris, Nate Cohn writes.]
While the reshaped race is still in its volatile early weeks, Democrats are now in a notably stronger position in these three battleground states that have long been key to the party’s victories — or defeats. Still, the results show vulnerabilities for Ms. Harris. Voters prefer Mr. Trump when it comes to whom they trust to handle the economy and immigration, issues that remain central to the presidential race.
Ms. Harris’s numbers are an upswing for Democrats from Mr. Biden’s performance in those states, even before his much-maligned debate showing that destabilized his candidacy. In May, Mr. Biden was virtually tied with Mr. Trump in Times/Siena polling in Wisconsin and Michigan. Polling conducted before and after the debate in July showed Mr. Trump with a narrow lead in Pennsylvania.
Much of the newfound Democratic strength stems from improved voter perceptions of Ms. Harris. Her favorability rating has increased 10 percentage points among registered voters in Pennsylvania just in the last month, according to Times/Siena polling. Voters also view Ms. Harris as more intelligent and more temperamentally fit to govern than Mr. Trump.
Les Lanser, a retiree from Holland, Mich., who typically votes Republican, said he was considering backing Ms. Harris in November. While he disagrees with some Democratic policies, he said he could not stand Mr. Trump’s “disrespectful” and “unacceptable” attitude.
“Some of her character is real appealing to me. I’m not so sure I agree with a lot of her policies,” said Mr. Lanser, 89, who regrets supporting Mr. Trump in 2016. “But the alternative is just not acceptable at all in my mind — because character is everything.”
The polls offer an early snapshot of a race that was transformed in little more than two weeks. The whirlwind of political change seized the nation’s attention and reinvigorated some voters who were approaching the rematch between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump with a deep sense of dread.
It is unclear how much of Ms. Harris’s bounce in the polls stems from the heightened excitement surrounding her ascension to the top of the ticket, or whether that momentum will last. Candidates traditionally gain a few percentage points in the days and weeks after announcing their running mate. Ms. Harris announced her selection of Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota on Tuesday, as voters were responding to the Times/Siena surveys in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Still, there is little doubt that replacing Mr. Biden on the ticket has turbocharged Democratic enthusiasm about the election. Among Democrats, voter satisfaction with their choice of candidates has skyrocketed since Ms. Harris entered the race, up 27 percentage points in the three swing states since May, according to the latest Times/Siena results. Democrats are now more likely to say they are satisfied with their candidate choices than Republicans, a reversal from three months ago, when the question was last asked.
[Follow the latest polls and see updated polling averages of the Harris vs. Trump matchup.]
John Jordan, a Democratic voter from Croydon, Pa., praised Mr. Biden’s accomplishments as president and said he would have voted for him again in November. But his friends and family are way more “pumped up” to support Ms. Harris, he said.
“I believe that she is best suited to move this country forward,” said Mr. Jordan, 60, who works as a charter school administrator. “I’ll also take it one step further to say, I’m very proud to be part of this historic moment and to hope that, yes, she does become the first African American slash Asian woman to be in the White House. I think that this is just such an exciting time and an exciting moment.”
In the three battlegrounds, Ms. Harris is in a stronger position than Mr. Biden was in May with most demographic groups, including white voters without a college degree. She is faring better with key parts of the Democratic Party’s coalition that had begun to erode under Mr. Biden, most notably Black and young voters. But she also appears to be holding on to older voters, who were some of the president’s most ardent supporters.
The share of voters who said they trusted Ms. Harris to handle economic issues was higher than the share Mr. Biden received in May, though she is still nine points behind Mr. Trump on an issue where the Republican nominee has long held the advantage. And she has a 24-percentage-point advantage when it comes to whom voters trust to handle abortion, an issue considered one of the strongest for Democrats — in May, Mr. Biden held an 13-percentage-point advantage on abortion.
Mr. Trump’s attacks on Ms. Harris as “not smart” and “incompetent” have not landed with most voters. Nearly two-thirds of voters see Ms. Harris as intelligent, more than say the same about Mr. Trump. A majority of white voters without a college degree — a demographic that typically favors Republicans — said Ms. Harris was “intelligent.”
