DAILY MAIL
Historian Allan Lichtman has finally revealed his prediction for the 2024 election winner, after determining that Kamala Harris has met the critical objectives for victory.
The American University professor, 77, has fashioned his own election model that has correctly forecast every presidential winner since 1984.
He relies on an unorthodox system – ignoring the polls and pundits – based on what he calls ’13 keys’ to the White House, a model he developed in 1981 alongside his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
The model is based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes and even enabled Lichtman to call Trump’s unexpected 2016 victory a month before the election.
He then used his tactic to correctly predict the outcome in the 2020 elections.
Explaining the mysterious 13 keys to the New York Times, Lichtman said: ‘They are 13 big picture, true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party.
The 13 keys include: Midterm gains, incumbency, primary contest, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure, and foreign policy success.
Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate needs to lose six of them in order to be declared a loser under the model.
As of last month, she was down only three: having a Party Mandate/Midterm gains, Incumbency, and Incumbent Charisma.’
Two other keys were looking ‘shaky’ weeks ago: foreign policy and social unrest.
But Allan explained that only two of the 13 keys have anything to do with candidates – incumbent and challenger charisma.
Allan said the White House party gained House seats between midterm elections – stating the Democrats did better than expected in 2022 despite them still losing House seats – meaning the Midterm gains key is false.
He goes on to explain that a false key is good for Donald Trump.
The incumbency key covers the sitting president running for re-election.
‘Biden withdrew from the race, costing the Democrats this key – it is false,’ he told the newspaper.
Had Biden remained in the race, the Democrats would have salvaged the incumbency key, according to Allan’s model.
The White House party avoided a primary contest – the third key – as Allen explained how the Democrats ‘got smart’ and united behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
This means the key is true – moving Harris off the starting block in the race.
As there is no third-party challenger with RFK Jr dropping out of the race with no other third party candidate anywhere close to the 10 per cent polling threshold needed to turn this key – it means it is true.
Allan said the short-term economy – key number five – is strong as it is not in recession rendering the key true.
Long-term economic growth during the current presidential term has been at least as good as the last two terms, said Allan, who went on to explain how growth during Biden’s term is far ahead of growth during the previous two terms.
This, according to the model means the key is true.
