BBC
Marcie Paul is nervous.
A Democratic activist, Ms Paul has been knocking on hundreds of strangers’ doors, making phone calls and sending out flyers, all in an effort to woo people here to vote for Kamala Harris.
When Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate in July, Ms Paul was hopeful, as she saw the vice-president go “off like a rocket” in Michigan.
The state is one of three “blue wall” states – along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – that went Democrat in 2020, and if won again, would help clinch a presidential victory for Harris.
But with less than a month to go before election day, Harris’s honeymoon period in Michigan could be ending, leaving her pathway to victory less certain. A Quinnipiac poll last week indicated Donald Trump is leading in the swing state by three points.
“To keep that pace for the whole race – even though it’s seriously abbreviated – would be really unrealistic for anyone,” said Ms Paul, a resident of West Bloomfield, Michigan and co-founder of the liberal advocacy group Fems for Dems. “But I thought that we’d be a little more comfortable.”
Ms Paul is among several Democratic organisers and lawmakers in Michigan who say the presidential race here is tighter than expected, even as the Harris campaign appears to be heeding lessons from 2016. Critics say then-Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton lost the state because she took it for granted.
A reliably blue Midwestern state for decades before 2016, Michigan has since become a battleground state with 15 key Electoral College votes.
At this point in the election cycle four years ago, when it was Biden versus Trump, the Democratic candidate had a comfortable lead, and went on to win the state by 150,000 votes. Now it’s a dead heat.
There is “no obvious solution” for Harris to break ahead, said Michigan State University politics professor Matt Grossmann.
The Democrats have poured millions into advertising in the state. Harris’s entrance into the race led to more than 100,000 new volunteers in Michigan, while she has visited Michigan more than any other state besides Pennsylvania, according to her campaign.
Trump has also made at least a dozen stops in Michigan this year, but some campaign operatives have sounded the alarm that his campaign has let old-fashioned ground game tactics, like door-knocking and billboards, slide in several swing states, including Michigan.
