Why China is unlikely to win a trade war with the U.S.

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China’s steep tariffs on U.S. goods are straining its economy. Retaliatory tactics risk scaring investors, triggering inflation, and testing public patience as economic pressure mounts.

TIME

Does China have some not-so-secret weapons that will help it outlast the U.S. in the trade war?

It might seem so. Chinese leaders remind youth that they should learn to endure hardships—“eat bitterness,” as the Chinese say—unlike overweight and lazy Americans. Its autocratic government brooks no dissent so decision-making should be easier than in fractious America and decisions should stick longer. And China has dozens of ways to make life miserable for U.S. companies, who can be relied upon to lobby Washington to back off.

But those ideas reflect an outmoded view of China and a fundamental misunderstanding of its economic and political system.

Eat bitterness? Sure, in the past when China was far poorer. But it now has the same middle-class ennui as the U.S. and the Communist party’s legitimacy is largely based on an implied contract that it will improve living standards, not set them back. (Oh, and more than half of Chinese are now overweight, hardly a sign of asceticism.)

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