What happens to agriculture if everyone eats less meat? 

A global shift toward sustainable diets with less meat could dramatically reshape agriculture by 2050, according to research highlighted by Anthropocene Magazine. Cattle production could fall by half, while farmland for fruits, vegetables, nuts and legumes could expand by 1.5 million square kilometres. Grain cultivation could shrink by a similar amount, freeing large areas for rewilding or renewable energy. However, researchers warn the transition could significantly disrupt livestock-dependent rural communities and require new economic opportunities.

Picture a world where half the planet’s cattle ranches simply aren’t there anymore. Where does all that land go? What do farmers grow instead? And who wins or loses in the process? A major new analysis in Nature finally puts real numbers behind those questions.

The team modeled what would happen if the world actually switched to sustainable diets, rather than sticking with business as usual. The results are dramatic: cattle production could fall by half by 2050. The amount of land devoted to farming fruits, vegetables, nuts, and legumes could rise by 1.5 million square kilometers—more than twice the area of France—while the land area used to farm wheat, corn, rice, and other grains might fall by a similar amount.

The goal was “to recognize, a little more honestly, what would be the magnitude of these changes,” says Daniel Mason-D’Croz, an economist at Cornell University and one of three lead authors on the study. And importantly, “what kind of disruptions and dislocations it would mean for [food] producers?”

READ MORE FROM ANTHROPOCENE MAGAZINE