Why Tinubu may retain presidency in 2027 despite public dissatisfaction — The Economist

The Economist has argued that President Bola Tinubu could secure re-election in 2027 despite growing dissatisfaction over insecurity and economic hardship, citing Nigeria’s electoral dynamics.

According to THISDAY, the London-based publication said Tinubu’s prospects could be shaped by incumbency, a divided opposition, religion, political cynicism and low voter turnout.

The magazine said Tinubu’s economic reforms had been “lauded by investors” but “have yet to make life better for most of the country’s 240m people.” It also highlighted worsening insecurity, particularly in northern Nigeria, where banditry and insurgency continue to affect livelihoods.

However, The Economist said opposition fragmentation could benefit the incumbent, noting that Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar had not formed a joint ticket. Quoting Control Risks analyst Joachim MacEbong, it said: “Because it’s not a united ticket, that anti-APC vote is not coalesced into a single vote.”

The African Democratic Congress rejected the assessment, arguing that the cost-of-living crisis would determine voting behaviour. “We agree with the story that President Tinubu is universally disliked, but we disagree that he could win the election,” ADC spokesman Bolaji Abdullahi said.

The Nigeria Democratic Congress also disputed the publication’s conclusion and alleged that Tinubu could only retain power through electoral manipulation, an allegation for which THISDAY said the party provided no independently verified evidence.

Meanwhile, the Presidency defended Tinubu’s economic policies. Presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga said the reforms confronted longstanding structural weaknesses rather than created them, citing Tinubu’s Independence Day defence of difficult economic decisions.

The Economist also pointed to turnout as a factor, noting that Borno recorded participation below 20 per cent in 2023, compared with 27 per cent nationwide, and said insecurity could discourage voting.