One week after the CNN presidential debate, polls suggest former President Donald Trump has gained ground against President Joe Biden.
Biden and Trump both faced a wave of scrutiny over the debate in Atlanta last Thursday.
While Trump faced criticism for making myriad untrue statements—CNN ‘s fact check found that he made at least 30 throughout the debate—Biden has been the focus for much of the post-debate discussions, facing loud calls to withdraw from the race over his sluggish performance, which did little to quell concerns about his age.
Biden has resisted those calls to leave the race. His campaign said he had a cold during the debate, and several Democratic governors indicated support for the president following a meeting on Wednesday night. The president is seeking to squash concerns about his age following the debate and is slated for a high stakes interview with ABC‘s George Stephanopoulos on Friday.
Several polls have been released following the debate, many of which show Trump with a lead over Biden. But several polls have shown little or no change in the numbers since the debate.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate, Trump held an average lead of 2.3 percentage points in recent polls as of Wednesday, up from 0.1 percent since last Thursday’s polls, which were conducted prior to the debate.
Here is an overview of how major pollsters have gauged the race in the week since the debate.
Newsweek reached out to the Biden and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
The New York Times/Siena College
A poll from The New York Times and Siena College found Trump leading Biden by 6 points among likely voters (49 percent to 43 percent). The poll was conducted among 1,532 likely voters from June 28 to July 2.
This marks a slight shift toward Trump since the previous poll, conducted just days before the debate. That poll found Trump leading by 4 points (48 percent to 44 percent). It polled 1,226 likely voters from June 20 to 25.
The latest poll also found that Democratic voters were split about whether Biden should remain their party’s nominee. Forty-nine percent said he should be replaced, while 45 percent said he should remain the nominee.
The latest poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, while the June poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
CNN
A post-debate CNN poll, conducted among 1,274 registered voters from June 28 to 30, found Trump with a 6 point lead over Biden in a head-to-head matchup (49 percent to 43 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Those numbers, however, do not represent a significant change from CNN’s most recent poll from before the debate. That survey, conducted among 967 registered voters from April 18 to 23, also found Trump with a 6-point lead (49 percent to 43 percent) and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The Wall Street Journal
A new poll from The Wall Street Journal provided good news to Trump, finding that his support has grown following the debate. Conducted from June 29 to July 2 among 1,500 registered voters, the poll showed Trump with a 6-point lead (48 percent to 42 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
This was up from a Wall Street Journal poll conducted from February 21 to 28, among 1,745 registered voters, that found Trump with a 2 point lead (47 percent to 45 percent).
Reuters
A Reuters poll delivered better news for Biden. The survey, conducted from July 1 to 2 among 1,070 registered voters, found the election in a dead heat, with each candidate receiving 40 percent support. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
This followed a Reuters poll from June 12, conducted among 930 registered voters, that showed Trump with a single point lead (38 percent to 37 percent), meaning Biden pulled even and both candidates have gained support in this poll. The June poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Has the Presidential Race Changed in Key Swing States?
Despite the flurry of national polls released in the week since the debate, surveys of the key battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election remain more limited.
Political analysts view Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as the most competitive states in the election. Biden won all but North Carolina in 2020.
Only one poll has been released from one of those states since the debate.
A National Public Affairs poll of Nevada, conducted among 817 likely voters from June 28 to July 1 found Trump with a 10 point lead (49 percent to 39 percent). The large deficit for Biden comes as the same poll found fellow Democrat, Senator Jacky Rosen, holding a strong lead in her reelection effort, leading Republican Sam Brown by 8 points (41 percent to 33 percent).
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
