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The threat of a global recession is growing as central banks focus on bringing down soaring inflation rates, the World Bank warned Thursday, calling on governments to help boost supply to ease the constraints behind rising prices. Inflation worldwide has been rising at the fastest pace seen in decades, due to supply constraints amid high demand as countries emerged from the pandemic. It has been exacerbated this year by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Covid lockdowns in China.
Major central banks have responded forcefully, raising borrowing costs to cool demand and douse red-hot inflation. But in a new paper, World Bank economists warned that the actions may not be enough to bring high prices under control, leading to a need for more interest rate hikes, which in turn will put the brakes on growth.
Many countries will not be able to avoid a recession, but the worldwide slowdown and tightening monetary policy “could give rise to significant financial stress and trigger a global recession in 2023,” the paper said. In that scenario, global GDP growth would slow to 0.5 percent in 2023 — a 0.4 percent contraction in per capita growth, meeting the technical definition of a global recession…
