An economic downturn is near certain within the next 12 months, a model built by economists shows
The US economy is 100% certain to enter a recession in the next 12 months, according to an economic model devised by two Bloomberg economists and run based on 13 unspecified financial indicators on Monday. What’s even worse is that the apparently inevitable downturn might come even sooner than that – the model returned a 73% chance it would hit within 11 months and a 25% chance it would arrive within ten.
Those outcomes were significantly more grim than the last time Bloomberg ran the model, when it predicted a recession within the year with just 65% certainty. It’s definitely gloomier than the predictions of President Joe Biden, who has insisted the US will avoid the recession so many economists seem to think is lurking right around the corner. If there is a recession at all, Biden says, it will be “very slight.”
Not all experts are certain…
