National Review
Funny thing, though, if you go back to the 2014 cycle — the last time Republicans were expected to enjoy a good wave under a Democratic president — the final CNN poll before Election Day found Democrats leading on the generic ballot, 47 percent to 46 percent. In the final RealClearPolitics average, Republicans enjoyed a 2.4 percentage point lead in the generic ballot. In the final results, Republicans led the total number of House votes cast by 5.7 percentage points over the Democrats.
Right now, Republicans lead the generic ballot by 2.9 percentage points in the RCP average.
In other words, that cycle, Republicans overperformed the final CNN poll’s margin by 6.7 percentage points. If history repeats itself, Republicans will lead the total number of House votes cast by almost eleven percentage points over the Democrats.
