Even if not seen elsewhere, the “red wave” did end up crashing on the beaches of Florida. Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio racked up massive reelection margins. These decisive wins are partly a result of a broader political realignment. An entrenched party apparatus for turning out votes across the spectrum (mail-in, early, and in-person on Election Day) also helps Republicans there. Additionally, DeSantis and Rubio spoke to normie concerns. They are experienced officials with long records in Florida politics. While quite willing to advance the ball in a populist-conservative direction (on education, for instance), DeSantis has also shown himself a skilled administrator. A DeSantis ad early this fall indicated the broad coalition he aimed to build: it boasted of keeping schools and workplaces open, protecting the environment, and giving raises to teachers.
The tea leaves on the day after any election can tell false tales, but these results might offer a few potential hints about the years ahead.
Despite his low approval rating, Joe Biden probably benefited from the passage of a number of bipartisan bills in his first two years as president. While Republicans tried to harness popular dissatisfaction with inflation and draw on grassroots anger over the excesses of the Covid regime, they also struggled to present themselves as a credible political alternative to Democrats. Notably weak and inexperienced candidates in gubernatorial and senatorial battlegrounds aggravated this problem. Even if voters weren’t happy with Biden, they were also wary of Republicans.
This influences the GOP’s political and policy calculus. To convince voters that it could govern well if it gained power, the Republican Party has a strong political incentive to lay out a policy vision and to try to enact some of it via legislation. Alluding to this theme, J. D. Vance emphasized the importance of governing in his victory speech. Also on Election Night, South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham identified tech policy and energy as two areas where Republicans and Democrats could work together. But the GOP faces significant political peril if it becomes viewed merely as a party of outrage and complaints.
