An analysis conducted by Daily Trust after days of talking to key leaders of the APC and studying developments in the party shows former Lagos State Governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, taking the lead in terms of support of party juggernauts expected to determine the voting direction of delegates.
Ahead of the APC’s national convention holding today, governors and other key stakeholders in the party had taken queues behind different candidates battling for the party’s ticket.
Governors are in charge of the party machinery in states ruled by the APC, while in states under the opposition, chieftains such as former governors, ministers and party flag bearers are the ones calling the shot.
Most of the 23 aspirants had travelled to states to meet with party leaders and delegates to canvass for their votes. Most travelled among the aspirants are vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Tinubu, former Rivers governor, Rotimi Amaechi and Senate President Ahmad Lawan.
But beyond the moves to convince the delegates, old alliances and relationships are said to be playing significant roles in determining where the party leaders pitch their tents.
Tinubu has the support of most of the states with at least 16 states expected to give him block votes.
Four other forefront aspirants are projected to have a clean sweep on two states each while they join Tinubu to fight for the votes from 10 states and the FCT with no clear voting decision or swinging in the pendulum between the five frontline aspirants.
The four in this category are Osinbajo (Ogun & Nasarawa), Lawan (Yobe and Imo), Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti and Anambra) and Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers and Plateau).
Three other aspirants are projected to win only in their states. They are Kogi’s Yahaya Bello, Cross River’s Ben Ayade, former Akwa Ibom Governor, Godswill Akpabio and former Minister of Science and Innovation, Ogbonnaya Onu (Ebonyi).
Tinubu’s lead
A number of the states the former Lagos governor is expected to win fall among those with highest number of party delegates.
Our projection shows that Tinubu is likely going to sweep the votes from Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Borno, Sokoto, Lagos, Osun, Niger, Adamawa, Bauchi, Ondo, Kwara, Benue, Edo, Delta and Zamfara.
Aside his known grip on Lagos and Osun, the former governor has the backing of the deciders in the 14 other states who had either publicly expressed their support for him or are strongly believed to be in his camp.
Of the 13 northern governors pushing for return of the presidency to the South, at least eleven are said to be rooting for him. Most of them, including Kano’s Abdullahi Ganduje, Katsina’s Aminu Bello Masari, Kaduna’s Nasiru El-Rufai and Niger’s Abubakar Sani Bello had declared public support for the former governor. The trio and Borno’s Babagana Zulum were among the 12 governors who endorsed Tinubu’s nomination form, according to a source who had seen the forms before it was submitted to the party.
Aside the governors, some party leaders in states under the control of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the northern region are also believed to be in support of his candidacy. Those in this category are; Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), George Akume (Benue) and Adamu Adamu (Bauchi).
