In the end, it wasn’t a double blow, but a triple one.
Boris Johnson lost not just two by-elections but his party chairman too, who became the first of his cabinet to publicly express misgivings over the PM’s leadership, saying volunteers and staffers “deserve better than this”.
The by-election losses he was reluctantly expecting, but Oliver Dowden’s resignation he was not, finding out when he returned to his room in Kigali after his 6am morning swim (5am back in the UK) and checking his phone.
Mr Dowden called soon after and then sent out a letter which must have been painful to read.
The former party chair told the prime minister that supporters were “distressed and disappointed by recent events” and said he “shared their feelings”.
“We cannot carry on as business as usual and someone should take responsibility,” he said as he offered his resignation.
A source close to the PM told me later the letter was “unhelpful”. Others would argue it was…
