RT
Given the crisis-ridden, dysfunctional state of contemporary American politics, it is probably foolhardy to make any kind of prediction about Donald Trump’s political future. But recent events – together with an appreciation of American political history – suggest that his political demise may already be under way.
Trump’s downfall will not occur immediately – in fact, his exile to the right-wing fringe of US politics (where he always belonged) will be a protracted and difficult process. Nevertheless, it is still likely to happen for a number of reasons – but chiefly because Trump’s January 6 coup last year failed dismally. The investigative process and findings of the Select Committee into the riot will be seriously damning of him. We should also take into account that in the past, the American political system has often defaulted to a bipartisan compromise when it has been plunged into an acute crisis.
It should not be forgotten that Trump’s inept coup attempt failed because the basic institutions underlying America’s liberal democratic political regime held firm. Vice President Mike Pence and the Republican leadership (notably Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, and Lindsey Graham) – despite being staunch Trump supporters – ultimately refused to acquiesce in his bid to prevent Joe Biden from assuming office.
In this, they were supported by the Supreme Court – which, despite the fact that three Trump appointees sat on it, firmly rejected his spurious claim that the 2020 presidential election was “stolen” – the upper echelons of the military and the administration (in particular the Justice Department and state electoral officials) and, finally, Congress itself.
The ham-fisted coup attempt ultimately collapsed into nothing more than a violent, grubby riot by a few thousand of Trump’s more deluded supporters, who he had cynically manipulated for his own purposes. The outcome could have been different – but the fact remains that Trump’s effort to subvert American liberal democracy failed completely and, paradoxically, this failure may have actually strengthened the US political system.
It cannot be denied that Trump’s coup attempt had – and still has – widespread voter support, and that he still personally controls a substantial portion of the Republican Party voter base. That is why most prominent Republican politicians refuse to attack Trump openly, even now.
His continuing popularity, however, cannot alter the fact that his actions in late 2020 and early 2021 have probably rendered him unelectable as president in 2024.
Those crucial swinging voters (many of whom had been Obama supporters) who opted for Trump in 2016 – because they were justifiably disenchanted with the Democrats and simply could not contemplate voting for Hillary Clinton – deserted him in 2020. It was their votes that elected Biden, and they have now been lost to Trump forever, as a result of the events of January 6.
Astute Republican power brokers, even those still beholden to Trump, are aware of this. They also know that he would behave in precisely the same way in 2024 as he did in 2020, if given half a chance. Trump, nevertheless, remains a powerful force in American politics – feared both by Democrat and Republican politicians alike.
