The Champions League is anything but predictable. Or at least it used to be. Paris Saint-Germain and the Premier League clubs look set to dominate.
By Mark Ogden
The Champions League is anything but predictable. The past four seasons have given us four different winners, while nine different teams have contested the most recent six finals. But as European football continues to shake on its axis through a combination of financial mismanagement and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, that might be about to change.
Not sure? Well, here’s a prediction: it will be reduced to a private battle between Paris Saint-Germain and the Premier League clubs this season, and over the short- to medium-term. Bayern Munich might have something to say about that, but this summer’s transfer market has shown us where the money is in the game: wherever the cash flows, the big trophies usually follow.
The most high-profile players are also part of that equation, which is why Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo upgraded their own Champions League chances this summer with transfers to PSG and Manchester United respectively. Messi (four) and Ronaldo (five) have won nine Champions Leagues between them, so don’t be surprised if one of them bags another this season.
Still, it’s not all doom and gloom. Less than six months after Europe’s elite clubs attempted to form a breakaway Super League that would have signalled the death knell for the Champions League as we know it, football’s most prestigious club competition is back as the road to the final in Saint Petersburg, Russia, in May begins.
There has undoubtedly been an acceleration of a power shift towards PSG and the Premier League powerhouses — Man United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool. For five consecutive seasons between 2013-14 and 2017-18, the Champions League was won by either Barcelona or Real Madrid. Atletico Madrid also contested two finals in that time.
But LaLiga has not been represented in any of the last three finals, which have signposted a clear shift towards an increasingly dominant Premier League. Two of those finals have been won by English teams, Liverpool and Chelsea, with Tottenham and Man City the losing finalists in all-Premier League affairs. The exception was Bayern’s 2019-20 victory over PSG in Lisbon, which gave us another indicator as to which way the wind was beginning to blow in European football.
So as the biggest clubs begin their Champions League journey this week, it seems you can pretty much forget about a Spanish or Italian team winning the competition this season. Barcelona and Real are both lost in a period of transition, with huge wage bills at Camp Nou and the Bernabeu draining their resources. Barcelona’s debt now stands at €1.35 billion, ultimately forcing them to accept defeat in their attempts to keep Messi at the club. Although Real reported cash reserves of €122m in June, they are halfway through a €700m redevelopment of the Bernabeu, and efforts to trim their annual €400m wage bill led to the departures of Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane.
Real spent €30m on Rennes midfielder Eduardo Camavinga and signed David Alaba from Bayern on a free, while Barca’s incomings have been the likes of Sergio Aguero and Memphis Depay on free transfers, with Messi, Antoine Griezmann (Atletico, loan) and Miralem Pjanic (Besiktas, loan) among those heading out.
Neither Barcelona or Real appear in any shape to rival PSG or the Premier League giants this season, and although Atletico are always a consistent Champions League force…
