BUSINESS INSIDER
The bit of good news, however, is a perfect illustration of why DeSantis faces such long odds in the state, and arguably has struggled to cut into Trump’s national lead.
According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, DeSantis has a 15-point lead among college-educated voters in the state if the race narrowed to just the two of them. Among the current field, Trump and DeSantis are tied a 26% among the demographic.
There simply aren’t enough college-educated Republicans in Iowa. The group composes only 42% of the Iowa GOP electorate, per The Times. Even in the hypothetical showdown, Trump still leads DeSantis overall in the state by 16 points. Among the larger field, Trump’s lead is 24 points over DeSantis.
As Atlantic senior editor Ronald Brownstein previously pointed out, part of DeSantis’ national struggle is that there are not enough college-educated Republicans still in the party. Meanwhile, Trump continues to romp both in Iowa and nationally among Republicans without a college degree. Among the larger field in Iowa, Trump holds a 40-point lead over DeSantis. A national Times-Siena poll pegged Trump with a 49-point lead among the group.
If this sounds familiar, it’s because it is. Trump’s 2016 romp to the GOP presidential nomination saw him run up huge margins among voters without a college degree while he struggled among more educated Republicans.
Iowa, the home of the first-in-the-nation caucuses, looms large for DeSantis’ campaign. A win there would shatter Trump’s growing narrative of an inevitable general election rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden. No recent Republican has won the party’s nomination without winning one of the early states. If it doesn’t come together in Iowa, it’s not currently clear how DeSantis would fare better in New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina.
