Donald Trump nosedived in several election betting markets after his performance against Kamala Harris in their first presidential debate Tuesday night.
The Republican nominee had a 46.8 percent chance of winning in November compared with Harris’ 51.9 percent as of early Wednesday, according to electionbettingodds.com. The site, which uses odds data from four markets, reported that Trump saw a 3.7 percent decline in the last 24 hours while the vice president surged 4.8 percent.
Trump’s chances of returning to the White House also got longer on Polymarket, the prediction market where users bet cryptocurrencies on who will win the election. Despite Trump being ahead of Harris for the past two weeks, users gave both candidates an equal 49 percent chance of winning as of Wednesday morning. A separate market on the site about who polls will say won the debate currently gives Harris a 99 percent chance.
On PredictIt, buying a share on Monday to predict a Harris victory in the election would cost 53 cents—indicating an approximate 53 percent chance—while buying a share for Trump would cost 52 cents. As of Wednesday morning, backing Harris costs 56 cents while Trump’s have fallen to 47 cents.
Harris now has a 2.7 percentage-point lead over Trump in an average of national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight.
The bad news doesn’t end there for Trump. Shares in his social media company Trump Media & Technology Group—the parent company of Truth Social—were set to open over 10 percent lower on Wednesday.
Stock in the company, which has been bought and sold as a kind of proxy for Trump’s chances of winning in November, is mostly owned by Trump himself. His roughly 57 percent stake was worth around $2 billion on Tuesday—premarket trading Wednesday suggests that his position could decline by over $200 million, according to The New York Times.
