NEWSWEEK
A new poll has for the first time given Republican challenger Dave McCormick the lead in the Pennsylvania Senate race.
McCormick is running against Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr., who is seeking a fourth term.
The new poll by Atlas Intel found that 48.3 percent of respondents said they would vote for the Republican, compared with 47.1 percent who back the Democrat.
The poll surveyed 2,048 likely voters in Pennsylvania between October 12 to 17, and has a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.
Respondents were surveyed amidst the final debate between the pair, which took place on October 15, and featured hostile sparring between the two candidates over their records and various policy areas.
The last poll by Atlas Intel in September found Casey ahead of McCormick 47 percent to 45.
A recent poll by the Trafalgar Group, a Republican pollster, also found McCormick narrowly ahead of Casey, 47.2 percent to 46.8 percent. The poll surveyed 1,084 likely voters in Pennsylvania between October 17 and 19. It has a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
Casey has consistently polled ahead of McCormick, until now.
Polls by other pollsters in recent weeks have similarly shown Casey ahead, with margins ranging from 2 percentage points ahead to 9 points ahead.
It’s important to note that McCormick’s margins of victory in the newest polls fall within the polls’ margins of error, showing how tight the race is likely to be.
McCormick is a businessman who was chief executive officer of Bridgewater Associates, and a politician who served as the Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs during the George W. Bush administration.
This is his second Senate run. He is attempting to unseat Casey, who has represented Pennsylvania in the Senate since 2007 and is the longest-serving Democrat in the state.
With about two weeks left until Election Day, Democrats will likely be closely watching Pennsylvania and a handful of other competitive seats that could cost them their razor-thin Senate majority.
Democrats currently hold the Senate narrowly with 51 seats, with four independents caucusing with the party, while Republicans hold 49 seats.
The odds of holding on to the Senate do not appear to be in the Democrats’ favor.
Of the 34 Senate seats up for a vote this year, eight races are considered competitive. Of these, seven are currently held by Democrats.
Meanwhile, Republicans hold the House of Representatives 220 to 212 after taking control in the 2022 midterms.
Pollsters predict that Democrats are likely to take control of the lower chamber.
Newsweek reached out to Casey’s campaign via email and a McCormick representative via X, formerly Twitter.
