Independent
Monkeypox is mutating up to 12 times faster than expected, a study says, amid warnings the UK could see as many as 60,000 new cases a day by the end of the year.
As of Sunday 26 June, there were 1,076 cases across the UK, up by 166 on the previously Friday with health experts stating the outbreak is likely to spread further over the coming weeks.
While a surge to tens of thousands of daily cases in six months might seem exteme, scientists have found the virus appears to be mutating at an unusual rate.
In a study published in journal Nature Medicine, Portuguese researchers found samples of the virus had 50 mutations in its DNA compared to 2018. That’s between six and 12 times the number scientists would normally expect over the same time period.
He added that 53 per cent of a population would need to be infected for enough people to have immunity to stop the virus spreading — known as herd immunity.
Based on these parameters, he modelled how the outbreak would unfold if all males aged 50 and under are susceptible to the virus. This equates to 40 per cent of the UK’s population — around 26.8million people — and is classified as a “large population at risk”.
He said the parameters are based on the over-50s likely having some immunity from smallpox vaccinations, which the UK stopped rolling out in 1971, and the spread so far mainly occurring among men.
The infection causes lesions on the body
(Centers for Disease Control and)
Professor Kleczkowski also highlighted another scenario that would see cases drop dramatically this summer as “at risk” groups become immune to the virus. So the R number can be close to or even lower than one, and the transmission would stop…
