2026 Ballon d’Or: Top five favourites ahead of shortlist announcement

With the 30-man shortlist for the 2026 Ballon d’Or set to be announced, the race for football’s most prestigious individual prize is shaping up to be one of the closest in recent years.

The 2025-26 season produced outstanding individual campaigns, while the 2026 FIFA World Cup added another major factor to the voting.

From Rodri’s midfield dominance to Harry Kane’s extraordinary goalscoring, Lamine Yamal’s historic campaign, Kylian Mbappé’s record-breaking World Cup and Lionel Messi’s enduring brilliance, these are the five leading contenders.

5. Lionel Messi

At 39, Lionel Messi remains firmly in the Ballon d’Or conversation after another remarkable international campaign. The Argentine scored eight goals at the World Cup and helped his country reach the final before Spain ended their hopes of retaining the trophy.

Although his domestic performances in MLS were not enough on their own to put him among the favourites, his influence at the World Cup and status as an eight-time winner keep him in contention.

4. Kylian Mbappé

Kylian Mbappé continues to wait for his first Ballon d’Or, but his numbers have once again placed him among the leading candidates. The French forward scored 10 goals at the World Cup to become the tournament’s all-time leading scorer, while he also registered 42 goals in 44 appearances for Real Madrid. Despite Madrid ending the season without major silverware, Mbappé’s individual output remains difficult to overlook.

3. Lamine Yamal

Lamine Yamal has emerged as one of the strongest contenders after an outstanding campaign for club and country. The Barcelona winger scored 24 goals and supplied 18 assists as his side secured another La Liga title. His influence continued on the international stage, where he played a major role in Spain’s World Cup triumph despite carrying a hamstring problem.

2. Harry Kane

Harry Kane’s remarkable scoring record has made him a serious challenger for the prize. The Bayern Munich striker scored 61 goals in 51 appearances, helping the German giants secure a domestic league and cup double. He also won the European Golden Shoe and scored six times for England during their run to third place at the World Cup.

1. Rodri

Rodri enters the race as the leading favourite after another commanding campaign. The Spain midfielder was central to his country’s World Cup success, controlling games from the heart of midfield while providing defensive stability and composure in possession. His performances earned him the World Cup Golden Ball, strengthening his case to win a second Ballon d’Or.