‎FACT CHECK: Do 140m Nigerians live in poverty as Peter Obi claimed?

‎Claim
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‎“Today we stand before the world as a nation with an extraordinarily large population living in poverty and severe hardship – over 140 million.”
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‎Peter Obi, Presidential Candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), made the claim in his Independence Day address as Nigeria marked its 66th anniversary, on Thursday.
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‎Obi also cited other indicators of hardship, saying Nigeria had “over 18 million” out-of-school children, that “over 40 million Nigerians will be in extreme hunger by the end of 2026,” and that youth unemployment and underemployment stood at “over 35 million.”
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‎He also cited drug abuse and low life expectancy among the country’s major challenges.
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‎Findings
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‎Available evidence confirms that poverty, food insecurity and other forms of deprivation are widespread in Nigeria, but it does not conclusively establish Obi’s specific claim that more than 140 million Nigerians currently live in poverty and severe hardship.
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‎The latest official national multidimensional poverty survey by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) found that 63 per cent of Nigerians, or about 133 million people, were multidimensionally poor.
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‎The survey was conducted between November 2021 and February 2022 and measured overlapping deprivations in areas including education, healthcare, sanitation, electricity, cooking fuel, housing and food security.
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‎However, that figure is not a 2026 estimate.
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‎More recent poverty estimates are higher. The World Bank’s April 2026 Nigeria Development Update estimated that 63 per cent of Nigerians were living below the national poverty line in 2025, equivalent to roughly 140 million people. The estimates were based on the 2018/19 and 2022/23 Nigeria Living Standards Surveys.
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‎PwC’s 2026 West Africa Economic Outlook projected Nigeria’s poverty rate at 62 per cent in 2026, equivalent to about 141 million people. PwC said the projection was based on straight-line estimates using data from the 2018/19 and 2022/23 Nigerian Living Standards Surveys.
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‎These figures provide substantial evidence that more than 140 million Nigerians could be living below a monetary poverty line around the period covered by the claim.
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‎They do not, however, establish that 140 million Nigerians are living in multidimensional, extreme or “severe hardship” conditions.
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‎The distinction is important. The NBS’s multidimensional poverty measure captures several simultaneous deprivations, while monetary poverty estimates classify people according to whether their income or consumption falls below a specified poverty line. The two measures are not interchangeable.
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‎Food insecurity
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‎There is stronger evidence of the severity of Nigeria’s food crisis, although it does not substantiate Obi’s exact figure of 40 million people facing extreme hunger.
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‎The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said nearly 35 million Nigerians are likely to face acute food insecurity during the 2026 lean season, with 5.8 million of them in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe (BAY) states. OCHA also described severe food insecurity and malnutrition as endemic.
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‎The UN Population Fund (UNFPA), citing the 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, similarly reported that 35 million Nigerians could face acute food insecurity during the 2026 lean season, including 5.8 million people in the BAY states.
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‎The World Food Programme also puts the projected number at nearly 35 million, with the BAY states accounting for about 5.8 million.