Harvard computer model: 94% chance Democrats take the House

A Harvard University election forecasting model has projected a 94 per cent chance that Democrats will regain control of the US House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026, midterm elections.

According to Harvard University’s ElectIt platform, the forecast states: “Our forecast says there’s a 94% chance the Democrats take the House.”

The model projects Democrats winning approximately 239 House seats and 52 Senate seats if current polling estimates prove accurate.

Developed by researchers Danny Ebanks, Jonathan Katz and Gary King, the model combines polling data, historical election results and other electoral indicators.

However, researchers cautioned that polling errors could significantly alter the outcome, potentially allowing Republicans to retain congressional control despite the favourable Democratic projections.

The forecast remains subject to uncertainty.

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