Trump is turning to Putin for fuel — and missing the diesel boom in Nigeria

President Donald Trump’s recent diesel agreement with Russia has sparked backlash from Ukraine and a bipartisan group of senators. Under the agreement, Russia has pledged to supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel to U.S. and global markets to ease rising fuel prices. As lawmakers press the administration to withdraw from the agreement, Nigeria could emerge as a potential additional diesel supplier if the Trump administration seeks other fuel sources. Nigeria remains Africa’s top crude oil producer, the largest African supplier of crude oil to the United States, and has significantly ramped up its refining capacity, becoming an important supplier of diesel to global markets.

Historically, the U.S. and Nigeria have a complex, strategic partnership based on deep economic and security cooperation with periods of diplomatic friction. While the foundation for expanding bilateral energy cooperation already exists, Nigeria’s capacity to supply additional diesel to the U.S. and international markets faces multiple challenges, such as refining constraints, rising domestic fuel demand, and declining crude oil production.

Nigeria has made significant progress in expanding its domestic refining capacity in recent years. In 2026, Nigeria’s Dangote refinery raised its crude oil processing capacity to 700,000 barrels per day, showing that the country’s ability to produce refined petroleum products, including diesel, has progressed rapidly. The refinery has also expanded diesel exports to European and West African markets, which demonstrates Nigeria’s growing role in global diesel supply. Although Nigeria’s refining capacity is increasing, security issues threaten the reliability of crude oil supplies. For instance, in April, Nigerian troops arrested 15 individuals suspected of attempting to steal crude oil by illegally tapping into a discharge point on a vessel supplying crude to the Dangote refinery. Such incidents indicate that the security risks could complicate efforts to increase refining output and expand diesel exports.

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