Where is oil windfall?

With the prolonged US-Iran war causing disruptions in the global oil market and shooting up the prices of crude, Nigeria has raked in billions of Naira in oil windfall in the last six months, Daily Trust can report.

While no public record exists of the exact amount made from the windfall, Daily Trust analysis estimates that Nigeria might have grossed about N5trn since the start of the US-Iran war in late February 2026.At the peak of the war, worsened by the killing of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, by a joint US-Israeli airstrike, Brent crude, the international benchmark price, traded above $115 per barrel in April as the supply disruption deteriorated.

Daily Trust reports that while rising crude oil prices are usually good news for an oil-producing country like Nigeria, as they strengthen government revenues and foreign-exchange earnings, they also push up fuel, transport, and food costs for households.Estimated windfall in six months

The N58.47 trillion 2026 budget was based on a relatively conservative crude benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, with oil production projected at 1.84 million barrels per day. The budget was later reviewed upward to N67.7 trillion.

When the bill was passed in April, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriations, Senator Solomon Adeola Olamilekan, also announced an increase in the crude benchmark to $75 per barrel.

With international crude prices now moving well above that benchmark, the gap creates additional earnings for Nigeria.

The early March surge of crude prices saw Brent Crude jump 10% to $82 immediately and by mid-March, it surged to near $120 as the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping route controlling one-fifth of the global fuel supply, closed.

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