Erroneous: Renewed Hope issues rebuttal to The Economist’s October 1 report on Nigeria

Condescension Is Not Analysis

Formal Rebuttal to The Economist’s Erroneous Article Published on October 1, 2026

The Economist is entitled to its misconceived opinion, but its headline, “Nigerians dislike their president”, is a verdict delivered without adequate national evidence, and its own sources argue for appeal. SBM Intelligence, the polling firm it cites, shows the President’s net favourability rising from -58.5 in May to -3.3 in September. That is a 55-point swing in four months, closing 94% of the gap to neutral as the reforms’ results began to show. A president whose standing is recovering this fast is not the portrait of a leader Nigerians “dislike”. It is the portrait of a country weighing his record and warming to it.

Insecurity in soft targets remains a challenge in Nigeria, and the government is addressing it seriously. Yet your alleged “worsening security crisis” ignores the scale of the state’s response. Between July and September 2026, the Armed Forces, working with international partners, especially the United States, reported 554 terrorists neutralised and 1,736 kidnapped civilians rescued. The National Bureau of Statistics puts Borno’s food inflation in August at -4.04% year-on-year, the lowest in the country; food prices there are falling. Security is not solved, but the government is not standing still.

The national picture is stronger than the article admits. Quoting 15% inflation without its direction is like reporting a temperature without noting that the fever is breaking. Headline inflation stood at 15.39% in August, against 23.14% a year earlier, and food inflation fell from 25.30% to 19.57%. Monthly food inflation dropped from 5.56% in July to 1.02% in August. Second-quarter growth of 4.43% was the fastest in five years, and gross external reserves reached $54.61 billion in September, the highest in 18 years. Moody’s moved Nigeria’s outlook from stable to positive, citing stronger growth, larger reserves, current-account surpluses and a better-functioning FX market. The IMF commended the reforms for strengthening stability and resilience; the World Bank notes “meaningful progress,” and annual tax collections have risen from ₦12.3 trillion to ₦28.3 trillion. These are not the statistics of a stagnant economy, and the praise comes from far more than “investors.”

The article’s deeper error is to treat present hardship as proof that reform has failed. Stability comes first; relief follows once the foundations hold. Jobs, cheaper food, stronger wages and better services are the next phase, not evidence of failure now.

Finally, the analysis undermines its own headline. If, as it concedes, the president is likely to win, the plainest explanation is that voters see the direction of travel and want it completed. Re-election should not be explained away as ethnic loyalty, religion, low turnout, or “plentiful cash to dole out goodies”. Nigerians can reward difficult decisions when they see where they lead. The question before 2027 is not whether Nigerians dislike President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, but whether they believe his Renewed Hope reforms are beginning to rebuild Nigeria. The evidence suggests that a growing number do.

Prince Ade Omole
Renewed Hope Advocate.