Nigeria to record world’s highest heat deaths as El Nino intensifies over Sahel

Nigeria is projected to face the world’s highest heat-related death toll from this year’s El Nino, with extreme heat expected to cause tens of thousands of additional deaths across the Sahel over the next six months, RFI reports.

According to a report by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, the Sahel could see 66,800 extra deaths between September and February compared to a normal year, with Nigeria alone accounting for 31,400, followed by Sudan with 17,500, Niger with 10,000 and Chad with 8,000.

Worldwide, the toll could reach 239,000 additional heat-related deaths over the same period, rising to 451,000 globally since El Nino began in June.

“This is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbours, people going to work, caring for families and living their lives,” said Michael Greenstone, the lab’s co-founder.

The report further noted that Nigeria could record 15,400 of its projected deaths between December and February alone, leaving a window for intervention through heat warnings, cooling centres, hydration stations and protections for outdoor workers.

Faculty research head Tamma Carleton said targeted emergency response could still save many lives this year, though she cautioned against complacency as extreme heat becomes increasingly normalized.

Heat expert Abhiyant Tiwari of the Natural Resources Defence Council India, who was not involved in the study, said the findings should be treated as “a call to action” rather than just another warning, stressing that true preparedness lies not in how many alerts are issued, but in how effectively lives are ultimately protected.