The primary nobody else could win: Byron Donalds and Florida’s most lopsided race

Trump-backed Florida congressman Byron Donalds is set to cruise to the Republican gubernatorial nomination on Tuesday, entering primary day as the most dominant favourite in the 2026 midterm cycle, according to Newsweek.

Prediction markets gave Donalds a 97 to 99 percent chance of winning heading into Election Day. On Kalshi, contracts trading Monday morning put his odds at 98.4 percent, while Polymarket had him at 99 percent.

The final wave of public polling tells the same story. A Quantus Insights survey found Donalds at 50 percent — 34 points ahead of his nearest rival — while a Targoz Market Research poll put him at 49 percent to Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins’ 18 percent, a 31-point margin.

Donalds has raised a formidable war chest, reporting more than $22 million in the first three months of 2026 for a total of $67 million by May. President Trump endorsed him in February 2025 and has repeatedly championed him, calling Donalds “a TOTAL WINNER.” The Florida Republican Party cancelled its official gubernatorial debate after only Donalds met the party’s polling and fundraising criteria — a move that drew criticism from rival candidates. No Democrat has won Florida’s governorship since 1994.