Iran’s Hormuz gambit backfired—now the IRGC wants the June deal back, and Trump says no

VIA IRAN WATCHER ON X:

Trump doesn’t want to return to the MOU after the Islamic Republic overplayed its hand and lost its leverage.

The June deal offered immediate relief from the U.S. naval blockade and oil restrictions, but now the IRGC wants that deal back, offering to reopen Hormuz if Trump returns to the agreement.

The balance has shifted as Saudi Arabia and the UAE increasingly bypass Hormuz through alternative export routes, ship-to-ship transfers expand in the Gulf of Oman, and commercial traffic through the Strait recovers, while Iranian oil remains squeezed by the U.S. blockade.

At the same time, the Islamic Republic faces a deepening economic crisis at home, a collapsing currency, fuel shortages and growing pressure on ordinary Iranians.

The Islamic Republic tried to use Hormuz to force Trump into concessions, but its neighbors adapted, its economy deteriorated, and Trump now holds the leverage.

VIA IRAN WATCHER ON X:

The Islamic Republic is losing Hormuz as the world moves its oil while Iran itself is locked out.

Before the war, roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products moved through Hormuz. The regime believed threatening that artery would give it enormous leverage over the world.

Instead, the region adapted.

Kuwait and Qatar previously moved roughly 2 million barrels of crude per day through Hormuz. They have already restored around 70% of that flow using shuttle tankers and ship-to-ship transfers in the Persian Gulf of Oman.

The UAE has its Fujairah pipeline bypassing Hormuz and has recovered strongly. Saudi Arabia has expanded alternative routes through its East-West pipeline and Red Sea and Mediterranean networks. Iraq has recovered from roughly 100,000–260,000 barrels per day at its worst point in May to around 2 million barrels per day.

Overall oil flows through Hormuz have climbed from roughly 4 million barrels per day in mid-July to an estimated 7–8 million today, with some tracking estimates recently approaching 10 million.

Meanwhile, Iranian oil loadings have collapsed to roughly 250,000–300,000 barrels per day in August, down from around 1.85 million barrels per day earlier in the war.

The inversion is devastating.

The countries the Islamic Republic thought it could hold hostage are rebuilding their export routes while Iran struggles to get its own fresh oil past the U.S. blockade.

The region is adapting through pipelines, dark shuttles, ship-to-ship transfers, Gulf of Oman terminals, and Red Sea and Mediterranean routes.
The world is adapting around Iran.

The Islamic Republic threatened to lock everyone else inside Hormuz.

Instead, it is increasingly the one locked in.

VIA IRAN WATCHER ON X:

President Trump says there is “no reason” to negotiate with the Islamic Republic: the U.S. blockade remains in force, the regime is bottled up, and the Strait of Hormuz is operating.

He has repeatedly made clear that he is “not in a hurry” and is prepared to wait.

The reason is simple: the U.S. knows it is winning the strategic contest while the Islamic Republic is running out of time.

The regime tried to weaponize Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally handled roughly 80–85 ships a day, to disrupt global energy flows and force the U.S. into concessions.

Instead, the pressure is increasingly being turned against the regime itself. Before the war, Iran exported roughly 1.6 million barrels of crude per day. Now its ability to move and monetize that oil is being squeezed by the blockade and an expanding campaign of secondary sanctions.

China, which buys more than 80% of Iran’s seaborne oil, remains the regime’s biggest economic escape hatch, and the U.S. is now threatening the buyers, banks, shippers and facilitators keeping that trade alive.

Iran can still disrupt shipping and impose costs, but disruption is not control. A regime that claims to control Hormuz while struggling to export its own oil and failing to force the U.S. back to the negotiating table is losing its leverage.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic faces a collapsing currency, severe inflation, fuel shortages and growing economic anger at home.

The Islamic Republic wanted Hormuz to become America’s pressure point. Trump is turning it into the regime’s trap.