Oil surges 4% as China halts fuel exports, US sends more troops to Middle East

Oil prices jumped on Thursday, settling up more than $4 a barrel, after a report that the US was sending more troops and carriers to the Middle East and China suspended oil product exports, raising fears of worsening global fuel shortages, as reported by Reuters.

Brent crude futures settled at $102.31 a barrel, up 4.37%, while US West Texas Intermediate finished at $92.87, up 2.71%.

A Wall Street Journal report said the US was sending a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 more troops to the Middle East, as President Donald Trump weighed resuming strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. Trump told reporters Iran would “either sign a very fair deal, or they won’t exist any longer.”

Prices initially fell 1% before reversing after Reuters reported Chinese refiners had suspended oil product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice, citing four sources. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the move suggests concerns about domestic product availability in China.

Diesel and other refined products remain scarce following damage to refinery infrastructure in the Gulf and Russia, compounded by Russia’s export ban through October. President Vladimir Putin said Russia will not resume diesel exports until Western sanctions are lifted.

The Trump administration has urged Germany and France to draw down emergency diesel stocks or face a possible US diesel export ban, sources said. The EU’s energy taskforce is set to meet Friday to discuss releasing diesel stockpiles.

Three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were struck by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, while Iran is reportedly preparing a stronger response should the US resume large-scale strikes.

Analysts have raised their 2026 Brent price forecast to around $89 a barrel, even as Gulf exports show signs of recovery, with Saudi Arabia resuming tanker loadings from Yanbu this week.